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12/1 「中國內憂太多暫無法侵台」 蔡英文到底說了什麼?原文翻譯及分析

12/1 「中國內憂太多暫無法侵台」 蔡英文到底說了什麼?原文翻譯及分析

先前有預購我的書的人,

今天應該會陸陸續續收到了。

習慣看電子書的,今天起也可以在各大平台買到了。

歡迎大家看完後留言跟我說好不好看,

覺得普通也可以直接說,我需要真實的回饋。

然後親簽版還剩少少的,購買方式放於最後。




然後在今天新聞開始前先預告一件事,

那就是這周六晚上,

蕭美琴專訪會在 YouTube 上首播

Podcast 也會同步上架,

過去我有個「訪問各國大使系列」,

而這次大選,我剛好也想要訪問至少一位候選人,

只是沒想到可以兩個願望一次滿足。

好奇蕭美琴在駐美期間如何讓台美關係升溫的人,

歡迎明天晚上七點來 YouTube 準時收看首播。




今天我們來上英文課。

昨天,各大台媒和外媒都不約而同下標一則新聞:

【蔡英文稱中國不堪內憂,無暇入侵台灣】




外媒有哪幾家呢?

我這邊簡單列幾家

路透社:台灣總統:中國太“不堪負荷”,以至於無法入侵

衛報:台灣總統稱中國有太多問題無法入侵

彭博社:台灣總統稱中國「不堪負荷」無法入侵

美國之音:台灣領導人表示中國目前不太可能入侵

印度斯坦時報:「中國被內部挑戰壓垮」:台灣領導人談「不太可能」的入侵

海峽時報:台灣總統蔡英文稱中國“不堪重負”,無法入侵

(新聞來源我會放在下方參考資料區)



台媒我就不幫大家蒐集了,大家應該都看得到。



通常看到這種突然間的大量新聞,

而且是引用某一人在某個場合說的話,

我就會立刻去找原文來看,確認她是不是真的有這個意思。

例如之前拜登說「會保護台灣」( yes, we have a commitment ),

我也是立刻去看原始影片確認他有沒有被超譯。




所以今天,我們就來看看蔡英文到底說了什麼,

又是在什麼情境下說的,前後文又提到那些事。

幫大家上一堂「英文」課(欸有雙關)。




首先,好家在有影片。

蔡英文是接受《紐約時報》DealBook 峰會專訪,

他們把 11 分鐘的受訪影片放到 YouTube 上。

而酷炫的是,

特斯拉老闆 Elon Musk 也在這個峰會上發表驚人言論,

大家可以去網路上搜尋看看,有夠爆氣,超精彩。

蔡英文的版面都被馬宜郎搶走惹(誤)。



好囉,我們要開始說文解字囉!

也歡迎大家搭配影片原文一起配飯。

主:在拜登總統和習主席舉行APEC會議之後,您目前如何評估中國入侵台灣的風險?

In the aftermath of the APEC meeting between President Biden and President Xi, how do you evaluate the risk of an invasion from China on Taiwan at this point?



蔡:我明白你提出這個問題的出發點。事實上,台灣正面臨逐漸增加的軍事威脅、灰色地帶侵擾、網路攻擊和資訊操縱。

I understand where you are coming from for that question. Indeed, Taiwan is facing mounting military intimidation, gray zone campaigns, cyber attacks, and information manipulation. 


現在,面對這樣的威脅,台灣民眾依然保持冷靜。一些評論家甚至認為我們可能過於冷靜了。

Now, in the face of such threats, the people of Taiwan remain calm. And some commentators even suggest that we may be, quote, too calm.


但事實是,台灣民眾對局勢是清醒的。我們將繼續盡最大努力來強化自己。我們會繼續利用我們的防衛能力和社會的韌性來保持國家運作來強化我們的防衛能力和社會韌性。

But the fact is the people of Taiwan remain clear-eyed about the situation. And we continue to make our utmost efforts to to strengthen our defense capabilities and society resilience.



主:習主席確實重申了他想要統一台灣的意圖,但他說他想和平地實現。你認為這要怎麼達成?

President Xi did reiterate his intention to unify with Taiwan, but he said he wanted to do it peacefully. How do you believe that this would happen?


蔡:我認為中國此刻的內部壓力已經超過承受範圍了。我認為,也許現在不是他們考慮大規模入侵台灣的時候。

Well, I think the Chinese leadership at this juncture is overwhelmed by its internal challenges. And my thought is that perhaps this is not a time for them to consider a major invasion of Taiwan.


主:因為中國目前面臨的經濟挑戰?

Because of the economic challenges in China right now?


蔡:不,主要是因為內部經濟、金融和政治挑戰。同時國際社會也明確表示,戰爭不會是一種選擇,和平和穩定才符合所有人的利益。

No, largely because of the internal economic and financial as well as political challenges. But also, the international community has made it loud and clear that war is not an option, and peace and stability serves everybody’s interests.



蔡英文過去七年不常接受採訪,

國內外媒體都是。

這次她會接受《紐約時報》的專訪,

我猜應該是刻意要釋放某些訊息給國際,甚至給中國。

所以我們才會看到她首次大方談論「中國侵台」,

甚至是評論中國內部的經濟狀況,

這都是過去很少見到的。

所以她在這個時間點選擇了《紐約時報》這個舞台,

光是這一點就有很多想像空間,

大家可以自己解讀她的用意。



我們繼續上課,接下來主持人提到「台積電去台化」:


主:如你所熟知,台灣的晶片製造對世界至關重要。拜登政府已嘗試將部分晶片生產轉移到美國作為優先事項。你認為這件事在台美之間長期關係上還有在台灣對美國的戰略價值上將會有什麼影響?

Taiwan’s chip manufacturing is critical for the world, as you know so well. The Biden administration has made it a priority to try to move some of that chip production to the United States. What do you think the impact of that is going to be long term on the relationship and value of the strategic relationship that Taiwan has for the United States?



蔡:我認為,向美國轉移我們的晶片製造能力,就目前而言,其實是一個很好的舉措,從某種意義上說,我們正在幫助我們的盟友和朋友建立供應鏈的彈性。但同時,我們將能夠利用美國現有的資源,特別是人力資源和人才。

Well, I think this move to the U.S. in terms of our chip manufacturing capabilities, as far as we’re concerned, for the moment, is a good move, in the sense that we are helping our allies and our friends in terms of building the supply chain resilience. But at the same time, we would be able to use resources available in the United States, especially human resources and talents.



主:但您是否擔心從長遠來看,這會降低這種關係的價值?會不會造成未來假設中國想要接管並統一台灣的時候,美國防衛台灣的意願會因此受到影響?

But do you worry that long term, it makes the relationship any less valuable to the United States, insofar as if, in the future, China were to want to take over and unify with Taiwan, that the U.S. would be less likely to come to your defense or more?



蔡:台灣不是只有半導體很讚呀。你知道,我們擁有的半導體集群(我猜是要講半導體生態)是不能在其他地方重建或取代。因此,我們非常有信心,我們現在擁有的能力和我們這個產業的重要性是其他任何地方都無法取代的。

Well, the thing is that we have more than the semiconductors to be valuable. You know, the clusters, the semiconductors, the clusters that we have, here for semiconductor production, cannot be, you know, rebuilt or replaced by elsewhere. So we’re pretty confident that this—the capacity that we have now and the importance of our industry cannot be replaced anywhere else.



之前我看過外交部長吳釗燮回答 Foreign Policy Live 的提問,

也是用同樣的策略應對半導體赴美設廠疑慮。

現在再次看到蔡英文也這樣回答,

大概可以感受出,這就是蔡英文政府的一致戰略了。

現在很明確,

只要誰再問蔡英文政府怎麼看待台積電去台化

回答就是「與你分享的快樂勝過獨自擁有」啦。



中間允許我跳過兩段,直接掉到最後一段。

因為我覺得最後一段有一些英文單字滿適合大家筆記,

以後遇到外國人,

就可以跟他們說中國是這樣干預台灣,而台灣人又是如何應對的。



蔡:我認為中國介入台灣選舉已經不是秘密了。他們在我們每次的選舉中都會向大眾和全世界表明他們喜歡哪個候選人。

Well, I think that China wants to be involved in our election. There’s no secret about it. And they would also make their preference known to the public and the world as well in each one of our elections. 



但我認為他們的努力可能不是很成功齁,主要是因為我們是一個民主國家,人們知道他們必須做出最好的決定,來選出台灣的下一位領導者。

But I think they are probably not particularly successful in their efforts trying to influence the election here, primarily because this is a democracy, and people know that they have to make their best decisions as to who is going to be the next leader of Taiwan. 



所以中國當然有興趣干涉台灣選舉。他們透過不同的方式試圖讓我們的選舉對他們有利。事實上,自1996年以來台灣歷次重大選舉已經看到了類似的認知作戰。 

And so China, of course, is interested in interfering in Taiwan’s election. And through different means, they’re indeed trying to sway our election in their favor. In fact, all major elections in Taiwan since 1996 have seen similar influence operations from China. 



現在,中國使用各種軍事威脅和經濟脅迫、在傳統媒體和社群媒體平台上打認知戰,台灣人民對這些也不陌生。

Now, this includes the use of military threats and economic coercion. The extensive cognitive warfare campaigns on both traditional and social media platforms are also not unfamiliar to the people of Taiwan. 



所以與其希望北京當局放棄這些戰術,我們更應該集中加強我們民主的韌性。

Now, instead of wishing for the day when Beijing would give up on these tactics, we should rather focus on strengthening the resilience of our democracy



我們其中一個該作的事是專注於增強不同社會群體之間的團結和信任力量,使人們能夠抵抗這些龐雜的資訊和其他挑撥離間的言論。

Now, one way of doing so is to foster greater unity and trust among different social groups, so that people are able to resist this enormous information and other influences aimed at sowing discord.



當人們對民主的力量有堅定的信心時,我們就可以更有效地對抗中國對我們的政治干預。

When people have firm faith in the strength of democracy, we can more effectively push back against election interference.



棒棒的字詞:

military intimidation:軍事恐嚇

gray zone campaigns:灰色地帶侵擾

cyber attacks:網路攻擊

information manipulation:資訊操弄

defense capabilities:防衛能力

societal resilience:社會堅韌性

supply chain resilience:供應鏈韌性

economic coercion:經濟脅迫

cognitive warfare:認知戰

sowing discord:挑撥離間

firm faith:堅定的信心

—我是公告線—

還想買親簽版的可以到我Pinkoi上購買

https://www.pinkoi.com/store/mindiworldnews



然後我這次推出「I’m Taiwanese」帽踢團購,

我還穿去習近平飯店外拍照,喜歡穿帽踢的人可以參考看看

https://campus.colaz.com.tw/index.php?route=product/category&path=763



參考資料

Taiwan president: China too ‘overwhelmed’ to consider invasion | Reuters

Taiwan president says China has too many problems to invade

China Is Too ‘Overwhelmed’ to Invade Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen Said – Bloomberg

Taiwan Leader Says China Invasion Unlikely for Now

‘China overwhelmed by internal challenges’: Taiwan leader on ‘unlikely’ invasion | World News – Hindustan Times

Taiwan’s President Tsai says China is too ‘overwhelmed’ to invade | The Straits Times

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